unintended consequences

One of the many ag news sources I digest (Get it?) recently reported that many dairymen throughout the country are closing down their dairies, selling the cows, and preparing to plant corn and soybeans instead. This is largely due to the fact that dairy work is long, hard and arduous, and the lure of money from the ethanol market seems like a much better gig. It is a shift that can make a lot of sense, but look for it to have an effect on milk, and other dairy prices. This brings me to my point. The ripple effect in economy and environment.

This is often very tricky and unpredictable, particularly with such volatile industries, but it is worth spending a little time in consideration, particularly since it could bring about some unintended consequences, and perhaps, some inconvenient truths.

Nowhere is this more evident than in the movement away from fossil fuels, and toward bio fuels.

I like the idea of growing our fuels. It would be great for the environment, at least to a point. Let me explain my concern.

If in the process of raising the raw materials for this change, we can avoid creating new environmental problems, it will be not only great, but bordering on the miraculous! One of the things we will need to deal with is the question of erosion. The ethanol market will, without a doubt, draw many people into farming, most of whom will have little interest in maintaining environmental integrity. Can we accomplish this without producing a new “dust bowl?”

What if we find that production will be insufficient for our needs due to drought or flooding, after we have become dependent on these new methods? Will we then turn to methanol production and suffer the effects of billions of people stripping the forests and pastures in order to drive.

What will happen if so many of our farmers ranchers and dairymen migrate to ethanol production, and away from food production that it affects the prices and availability of food adversely? Great, we have fuel to get to the store, but no food to buy when we get there!

I am not saying that bio fuels are not the answer.

When coupled with other technologies and innovations, including solar technology, storage cell improvements, better ways to harness wind and kinetic energy, more efficient power generation and application, hydrogen power, and many others, all working in tandem, great progress can be made. We need to make sure that we do not put all our eggs in one basket, as we seemingly have done with fossil fuels. We also need to make sure that we are prepared to deal with the different set of consequences that are possible with any emerging technology.